Compare a U.S. stock’s market price with a cash-flow-based estimate built from the company’s own SEC filings. Enter a ticker such as AAPL, KO, or TSLA.
How to use the Stock Fair Value Calculator
Type a U.S. stock ticker, such as AAPL for Apple, KO for Coca-Cola, or TSLA for Tesla, and press Analyze Stock. The tool collects the company’s latest financial statements from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), gets a recent market price, and builds a discounted cash flow (DCF) estimate of what one share might be worth. You can then try your own growth and discount-rate assumptions and see how much the answer changes.
How the estimate is calculated
A DCF answers one question: if a company keeps producing cash, what is all that future cash worth today? The tool works in four steps:
- Starting cash flow: operating cash flow over the last 12 months minus capital spending (money spent on factories, equipment, and data centers). This is a common measure of free cash flow.
- Five-year projection: that cash flow grows at the chosen growth rate each year (8% in the base case).
- Terminal value: after year five, cash flow is assumed to grow slowly forever (2.5% in the base case).
- Discounting: every future dollar is converted into today’s dollars using the discount rate (10% in the base case), which represents the return an investor would demand. Cash is added, debt is subtracted, and the result is divided by the number of shares.
A worked example: Tesla (TSLA)
We tested the calculator with Tesla in October 2026, using figures from Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 filings. The tool’s inputs matched Tesla’s reported numbers:
- Operating cash flow over the last 12 months: $18.7 billion
- Capital spending over the same period: $15.4 billion
- Free cash flow (the starting cash flow): $3.3 billion
- Cash and short-term investments: $45.4 billion
- Shares outstanding: about 3.95 billion
With the base assumptions, the estimate came to about $23 per share, while the market price was around $375 to $407 per share. That doesn’t mean Tesla is “worth $23.” It shows that the market expects something very different from the base case. Tesla spent heavily in 2026 on AI computing, factories, and new products, so its current free cash flow is small compared with its size. For the market price to make sense under this model, Tesla’s cash flow would need to grow by roughly 85% a year for five years. Investors who own the stock are betting on robotaxis, robots, energy storage, and AI. Skeptics doubt those bets will pay off. The DCF can’t decide who is right, but it shows clearly how big the bet is.
How to read the results
- Treat the result as a range, not a single answer. Look at the conservative, base, and optimistic scenarios and the sensitivity table. Small changes in assumptions can move the estimate a lot.
- The default settings are deliberately cautious. A 10% discount rate is on the high side for large, stable companies, and our tests found that the base case lands well below the market price for most well-known stocks. For example, the base estimate for Coca-Cola was about half its market price. Lowering the discount rate to 8.5% raises the estimate noticeably.
- Heavy investment lowers today’s free cash flow. The model subtracts all capital spending, including spending meant for future growth. For companies in a big spending phase, such as Tesla or many AI companies, use the tool’s “CapEx-aware” section to see how much this matters.
- A big gap is a question, not an answer. When the market price and the estimate are far apart, ask what the market believes that the model doesn’t.
Which companies work best?
DCF models work best for established, profitable companies with steady cash flows, such as consumer brands, utilities, and healthcare companies. They work poorly for young or unprofitable companies, banks and insurers (whose cash flows work differently), and companies going through major transformations. If a company’s free cash flow is negative, the tool will tell you a DCF can’t be produced.
Common questions
Where does the data come from?
Financial data comes from the company’s own filings with the SEC (Forms 10-K and 10-Q). Market prices come from a market-data provider and may be from the most recent trading session rather than live.
Is this investment advice?
No. This calculator is an educational tool that shows how valuation assumptions work. It doesn’t consider your goals or situation, and no model can predict future stock prices. Please read our Financial Disclaimer and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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